Background Taxing soft-drinks may reduce their
purchase, but assessing the impact on health demands
wider consideration on alternative beverage choices.
Effects on alcoholic drinks are of particular concern, as
many contain similar or greater amounts of sugar than
soft-drinks and have additional health harms. Changes in
consumption ...
Background Taxing soft-drinks may reduce their
purchase, but assessing the impact on health demands
wider consideration on alternative beverage choices.
Effects on alcoholic drinks are of particular concern, as
many contain similar or greater amounts of sugar than
soft-drinks and have additional health harms. Changes in
consumption of alcoholic drinks may reinforce or negate
the intended effect of price changes for soft-drinks.
Methods A partial demand model, adapted from the
Almost Ideal Demand System, was applied to Kantar
Worldpanel data from 31 919 households from January
2012 to December 2013, covering drink purchases for
home consumption, providing ~6million purchases
aggregated into 11 groups, including three levels of
soft-drink, three of other non-alcoholic drinks and five of
alcoholic drinks.
Results An increase in the price of high-sugar drinks
leads to an increase in the purchase of lager, an increase
in the price of medium-sugar drinks reduces purchases
of alcoholic drinks, while an increase in the price of diet/
low-sugar drinks increases purchases of beer, cider and
wines. Overall, the effects of price rises are greatest in
the low-income group.
Conclusion Increasing the price of soft-drinks may
change purchase patterns for alcohol. Increasing the
price of medium-sugar drinks has the potential to have
a multiplier-effect beneficial to health through reducing
alcohol purchases, with the converse for increases in
the price of diet-drinks. Although the reasons for such
associations cannot be explained from this analysis,
requiring further study, the design of fiscal interventions
should now consider these wider potential outcomes.