The diversity of population responses to environmental change
dc.contributor.author | Colchero, F | |
dc.contributor.author | Jones, O | |
dc.contributor.author | Conde, DA | |
dc.contributor.author | Hodgson, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Zajitschek, F | |
dc.contributor.author | Schmidt, BR | |
dc.contributor.author | Malo, AF | |
dc.contributor.author | Alberts, SC | |
dc.contributor.author | Becker, PH | |
dc.contributor.author | Bouwhuis, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Bronikowski, AM | |
dc.contributor.author | De Vleeschouwer, KM | |
dc.contributor.author | Delahay, RJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Dummermuth, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Fernández-Duque, E | |
dc.contributor.author | Frisenvænge, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Hesselsøe, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Larson, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Lemaître, JF | |
dc.contributor.author | McDonald, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Miller, DAW | |
dc.contributor.author | O'Donnell, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Packer, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Raboy, BE | |
dc.contributor.author | Reading, CJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Wapstra, E | |
dc.contributor.author | Weimerskirch, H | |
dc.contributor.author | While, GM | |
dc.contributor.author | Baudisch, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Flatt, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Coulson, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Gaillard, JM | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-03-12T15:37:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018-12-09 | |
dc.description.abstract | The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Max Planck Society, Marie Curie Fellowship | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | ERC | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | German Research Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Swiss National Science Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Science Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Institute of Aging | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Ramon y Cajal Research Grant | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Wenner-Gren Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Leakey Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Geographic Society | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Zoological Society of San Diego | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | University of Pennsylvania | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Argentinean National Council of Research | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 22 (2), pp. 342-353 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/ele.13195 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | PIEF-GA-2008-220322 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 249872 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | Be 916/3 to 9 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | SNF PP00P3-133641 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | BCS-1232349 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | BCS-1219368 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | BCS-0621020 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | IOS 0919200 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | P30 AG-012836 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | P01 AG031719 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | R01 AG034513 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | RYC-2016-21114 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/36423 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Wiley | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.subject | Age-structured population models | en_GB |
dc.subject | Bayesian inference | en_GB |
dc.subject | fecundity | en_GB |
dc.subject | mortality | en_GB |
dc.subject | survival | en_GB |
dc.title | The diversity of population responses to environmental change | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2019-03-12T15:37:49Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1461-023X | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.description | Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository: https:// doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d5f54s7 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Ecology Letters | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2018-11-07 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2018-11-07 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2019-03-12T15:11:39Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2019-03-12T15:37:53Z | |
refterms.panel | A | en_GB |
refterms.depositException | publishedGoldOA |
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