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dc.contributor.authorSaracco, F
dc.contributor.authorDi Clemente, R
dc.contributor.authorGabrielli, A
dc.contributor.authorSquartini, T
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-29T09:31:09Z
dc.date.issued2016-07-27
dc.description.abstractSince 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of network theory to shed light on the response of world trade to the financial crisis of 2007 and the economic recession of 2008-2009. We have explored the evolution of the bipartite World Trade Web (WTW) across the years 1995-2010, monitoring the behavior of the system both before and after 2007. Our analysis shows early structural changes in the WTW topology: since 2003, the WTW becomes increasingly compatible with the picture of a network where correlations between countries and products are progressively lost. Moreover, the WTW structural modification can be considered as concluded in 2010, after a seemingly stationary phase of three years. We have also refined our analysis by considering specific subsets of countries and products: the most statistically significant early-warning signals are provided by the most volatile macrosectors, especially when measured on developing countries, suggesting the emerging economies as being the most sensitive ones to the global economic cycles.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipGROWTHCOMen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipSIMPOLen_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 6en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/srep30286
dc.identifier.grantnumber611272en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber610704en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/40622
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNature Researchen_GB
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2016. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dc.titleDetecting early signs of the 2007-2008 crisis in the world tradeen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2020-01-29T09:31:09Z
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. en_GB
dc.identifier.journalScientific Reportsen_GB
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2016-06-24
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2016-07-27
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2020-01-29T09:27:33Z
refterms.versionFCDVoR
refterms.dateFOA2020-01-29T09:31:13Z
refterms.panelBen_GB


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