Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time
Knobloch, F; Hanssen, S; Lam, A; et al.Pollitt, H; Salas, P; Chewpreecha, U; Huijbregts, MAJ; Mercure, J-F
Date: 23 March 2020
Article
Journal
Nature Sustainability
Publisher
Nature Research
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently
in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions
reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is
not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based ...
Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently
in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions
reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is
not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based technologies by1 electric cars and heat pumps can effectively reduce overall emissions. Could
electrification policy backfire by promoting their diffusion before electricity is
decarbonised? Here, we analyse current and future emissions trade-offs in 59 world
regions with heterogeneous households, by combining forward-looking integrated
assessment model simulations with bottom-up life-cycle assessment. We show that
already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat
pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world
regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand. Even if future end19 use electrification is not matched by rapid power sector decarbonisation, it likely
avoids emissions in world regions representing 94% of global demand.
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