Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices
Journal of Banking and Finance
We address the question whether the evolution of implied volatility can be forecasted by studying a number of European and U.S. implied volatility indices. Both point and interval forecasts are formed by alternative model specifications. The statistical and economic significance of these forecasts is examined. The latter is assessed by trading strategies in the recently inaugurated CBOE volatility futures markets. Predictable patterns are detected from a statistical point of view. However, these are not economically significant since no abnormal profits can be attained. Hence, the hypothesis that the volatility futures markets are efficient cannot be rejected.
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Banking and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Banking and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32 (11), 2008, 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.02.003
Vol. 32, Issue 11, pp. 2401 - 2411
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