Impact of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on emissions scenarios to achieve stabilisation

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Impact of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on emissions scenarios to achieve stabilisation

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dc.contributor.author Jones, Chris D. en_GB
dc.contributor.author Cox, Peter M. en_GB
dc.contributor.author Huntingford, Chris en_GB
dc.contributor.department University of Exeter (at the time of publication Peter Cox was at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith, Dorset); Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter en_GB
dc.date.accessioned 2009-02-06T11:25:14Z en_GB
dc.date.accessioned 2011-01-25T10:33:21Z en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2013-03-20T12:31:58Z
dc.date.issued 2006-02 en_GB
dc.description.abstract As atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase due to burning of fossil fuels, stabilisation scenarios are receiving increasing amounts of interest both politically and scientifically, leading to the question, ‘what emissions pathway is required to lead us to a given climate/CO2 state?’ At present, about half of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are absorbed naturally, but there is growing consensus that this fraction will reduce due to the action of climate change on the natural carbon cycle. Such climate-carbon cycle feedbacks will therefore influence the amount of carbon emissions required to stabilise atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we quantify the impact that climate change will have on the world’s natural carbon cycle and how this will affect the amount of CO2 emissions which are permissible to achieve a stabilised climate in the future. Our simulated feedbacks between the climate and the carbon cycle imply a reduction of 21–33% in the integrated emissions (between 2000 and 2300) for stabilisation, with higher fractional reductions necessary for higher stabilisation concentrations. Any mitigation or stabilisation policy which aims to stabilise atmospheric CO2 levels must take into account climate-carbon cycle feedbacks or risk significant underestimate of the action required to achieve stabilisation. en_GB
dc.identifier.citation In: Schellnhuber, H. J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T. and Yohe, G. 'Avoiding dangerous climate change'. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 323-331 en_GB
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10036/48594 en_GB
dc.language.iso en en_GB
dc.publisher Cambridge University Press en_GB
dc.relation.url http://www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521864718 en_GB
dc.title Impact of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on emissions scenarios to achieve stabilisation en_GB
dc.type Book chapter en_GB
dc.date.available 2009-02-06T11:25:14Z en_GB
dc.date.available 2011-01-25T10:33:21Z en_US
dc.date.available 2013-03-20T12:31:58Z
dc.identifier.isbn 9780521864718 en_GB
dc.description Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2006. Published version reproduced with the permission of the publisher. en_GB


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