dc.contributor.author | Good, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Chadwick, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Holloway, CE | |
dc.contributor.author | Kennedy, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Lowe, JA | |
dc.contributor.author | Roehrig, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Rushley, SS | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-07-02T13:24:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-10-26 | |
dc.description.abstract | Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical
ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate. Influences of local ocean
temperatures on precipitation are hard to disentangle from remote effects of conditions
elsewhere; and the full influence of the recently-discovered shallow circulations
is unclear.
Uncertainty in precipitation observations, and limited observations of circulation , further
obstruct understanding. Despite decades of research, persistent biases remain in many
numerical model simulations, including excessively-wide tropical rainbands, the
‘double-intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem’ and too-weak responses to the
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These demonstrate stubborn gaps in our
understanding, and reduce confidence in forecasts and projections. Here we show that the
real world has a high sensitivity of seasonal tropical precipitation to local sea-surface
temperatures (higher than in all but 4 of the 47 models studied), associated with strong
shallow circulations. Our results apply to both temporal and spatial variation, over regions
where climatological precipitation is around 1 mm/day or greater. Novel analysis of multiple
independent observations, combined with physical constraints and model data, underpin these
findings. A large spread in model behaviour is further linked to differences in shallow
convection, providing a focus for accelerated research, to improve seasonal forecasts through
multidecadal climate projections. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Newton Fund | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | NASA | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Korean Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 26 October 2020 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41586-020-2887-3 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 80NSSC17K0227 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | KMI2018-03110 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/121755 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | Under embargo until 26 April 2021 in compliance with publisher policy | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2020 Nature Research | |
dc.title | High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea-surface temperature | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2020-07-02T13:24:49Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0028-0836 | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2020-10-15 | |
rioxxterms.version | AM | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2020-10-15 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2020-07-01T10:05:43Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |