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dc.contributor.authorChristidis, N
dc.contributor.authorMcCarthy, M
dc.contributor.authorStott, PA
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-28T12:59:42Z
dc.date.issued2020-06-30
dc.description.abstractAs European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programmeen_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 11, article 3093en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0
dc.identifier.grantnumber690462en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/122201
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNature Researchen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://archive.ceda.ac.uken_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://esgf.llnl.gov/en_GB
dc.rights© Crown 2020. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.en_GB
dc.titleThe increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdomen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2020-07-28T12:59:42Z
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recorden_GB
dc.descriptionData availability: The HadUK-Grid temperature data and station temperature data from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS) that support the findings of this study are available from the CEDA Archive, http://archive.ceda.ac.uk. The CMIP5 simulated temperature data that support the findings of this study are available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Archive, https://esgf.llnl.gov/.en_GB
dc.descriptionCode availability: IDL code used for the analysis is available upon request.en_GB
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.identifier.journalNature Communicationsen_GB
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-05-27
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2020-06-30
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2020-07-28T12:55:26Z
refterms.versionFCDVoR
refterms.dateFOA2020-07-28T12:59:50Z
refterms.panelBen_GB


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© Crown 2020. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © Crown 2020. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.