The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability
dc.contributor.author | Mitchell, DM | |
dc.contributor.author | Lo, YTE | |
dc.contributor.author | Seviour, WJM | |
dc.contributor.author | Haimberger, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Polvani, LM | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-03T10:17:56Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-10-13 | |
dc.description.abstract | Tropospheric and stratospheric tropical temperature trends in recent decades have been notoriously hard to simulate using climate models, particularly in the upper troposphere. Aside from the warming trend itself, this has broader implications, e.g. atmospheric circulation trends depend on latitudinal temperature gradients. In this study, tropical temperature trends in the CMIP6 models are examined, from 1979 to 2014, and contrasted with trends from the RICH/RAOBCORE radiosondes, and the ERA5/5.1 reanalysis. As in earlier studies, we find considerable warming biases in the CMIP6 modeled trends, and we show that these biases are linked to biases in surface temperature. We also uncover previously undocumented biases in the lower-middle stratosphere: the CMIP6 models appear unable to capture the time evolution of stratospheric cooling, which is non-monotonic owing to the Montreal Protocol. Finally, using models with large ensembles, we show that their standard deviation in tropospheric temperature trends, which is due to internal variability alone, explains ∼ 50% (± 20%) of that from the CMIP6 models. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | University of Bristol | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | US National Science Foundation | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 15, No. 10, article 1040b4 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N014057/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/R009554/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 1914569 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/124990 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | IOP Publishing | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cmip6-ceda/ | |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/BrisClim/ | |
dc.rights | © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. | en_GB |
dc.subject | temperature trends | en_GB |
dc.subject | troposphere | en_GB |
dc.subject | stratosphere | en_GB |
dc.subject | models | en_GB |
dc.subject | CMIP6 | en_GB |
dc.subject | bias | en_GB |
dc.title | The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2021-03-03T10:17:56Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1748-9318 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cmip6-ceda/. ERA5 data are available from ECMWF. Radiosonde data are available from Leopold Haimberger. Our code is freely available at https://github.com/BrisClim/. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Environmental Research Letters | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2020-06-09 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2020-10-13 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2021-03-03T10:10:51Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2021-03-03T10:18:02Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.