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dc.contributor.authorMitchell, DM
dc.contributor.authorLo, YTE
dc.contributor.authorSeviour, WJM
dc.contributor.authorHaimberger, L
dc.contributor.authorPolvani, LM
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-03T10:17:56Z
dc.date.issued2020-10-13
dc.description.abstractTropospheric and stratospheric tropical temperature trends in recent decades have been notoriously hard to simulate using climate models, particularly in the upper troposphere. Aside from the warming trend itself, this has broader implications, e.g. atmospheric circulation trends depend on latitudinal temperature gradients. In this study, tropical temperature trends in the CMIP6 models are examined, from 1979 to 2014, and contrasted with trends from the RICH/RAOBCORE radiosondes, and the ERA5/5.1 reanalysis. As in earlier studies, we find considerable warming biases in the CMIP6 modeled trends, and we show that these biases are linked to biases in surface temperature. We also uncover previously undocumented biases in the lower-middle stratosphere: the CMIP6 models appear unable to capture the time evolution of stratospheric cooling, which is non-monotonic owing to the Montreal Protocol. Finally, using models with large ensembles, we show that their standard deviation in tropospheric temperature trends, which is due to internal variability alone, explains ∼ 50% (± 20%) of that from the CMIP6 models.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Bristolen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipUS National Science Foundationen_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 15, No. 10, article 1040b4en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/N014057/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/R009554/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber1914569en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/124990
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherIOP Publishingen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cmip6-ceda/
dc.relation.urlhttps://github.com/BrisClim/
dc.rights© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.en_GB
dc.subjecttemperature trendsen_GB
dc.subjecttroposphereen_GB
dc.subjectstratosphereen_GB
dc.subjectmodelsen_GB
dc.subjectCMIP6en_GB
dc.subjectbiasen_GB
dc.titleThe vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variabilityen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2021-03-03T10:17:56Z
dc.identifier.issn1748-9318
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recorden_GB
dc.descriptionData Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cmip6-ceda/. ERA5 data are available from ECMWF. Radiosonde data are available from Leopold Haimberger. Our code is freely available at https://github.com/BrisClim/.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalEnvironmental Research Lettersen_GB
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-06-09
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2020-10-13
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2021-03-03T10:10:51Z
refterms.versionFCDAM
refterms.dateFOA2021-03-03T10:18:02Z
refterms.panelBen_GB


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© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.