A hybrid approach using forecasting and discrete-event simulation for endoscopy services

Abstract

Healthcare services worldwide are prioritizing efficiency of delivery and optimization of resource allocation. Efficient healthcare delivery relies on the coordination of demand and capacity, but forecasting studies often predict demand without regard for future capacity constraints. Likewise, capacity planning requires strategic decision-making, therefore planning tools should allow decision-makers to examine the consequences of changing demand and likely capacities required over time. The aim of the study is to evaluate a hybrid methodology using discrete-event simulation and demand forecasting in the healthcare domain. A case-study investigates the application of official population projections with local historical demand data to forecast demand for a healthcare diagnostic service. The resultant forecasts are then used with DES in a hybrid systems modeling approach. This provides plausible demand forecasts for future capacity planning and resource allocation in a preventative healthcare service. It also contributes to debates on the value of hybrid approaches in supporting real-world decision-making.