Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures
dc.contributor.author | Challen, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Tsaneva-Atanasova, K | |
dc.contributor.author | Pitt, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Edwards, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Gompels, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Lacasa, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Brooks-Pollock, E | |
dc.contributor.author | Danon, L | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-01T06:46:56Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-05-31 | |
dc.description.abstract | The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reproduction number has become an essential parameter for monitoring disease transmission across settings and guiding interventions. The UK published weekly estimates of the reproduction number in the UK starting in May 2020 which are formed from multiple independent estimates. In this paper, we describe methods used to estimate the time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number for the UK. We used multiple data sources and estimated a serial interval distribution from published studies. We describe regional variability and how estimates evolved during the early phases of the outbreak, until the relaxing of social distancing measures began to be introduced in early July. Our analysis is able to guide localized control and provides a longitudinal example of applying these methods over long timescales. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Medical Research Council (MRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 376 (1829), article 20200280 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rstb.2020.0280 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/N014391/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/N510129/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/P01660X/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | MC/PC/19067 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/125893 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | The Royal Society | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/terminological/uk-covid-datatools/tree/master/vignettes/current-rt | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. | en_GB |
dc.subject | SARS-CoV-2 | en_GB |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | en_GB |
dc.subject | regional variation | en_GB |
dc.subject | reproduction number | en_GB |
dc.title | Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2021-06-01T06:46:56Z | |
exeter.article-number | 1829 | en_GB |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available from The Royal Society via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.description | Data and code supporting this article can be accessed on GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/terminological/uk-covid-datatools/tree/master/vignettes/current-rt. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2020-12-02 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2021-12-02 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2021-05-31T19:43:05Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2021-06-01T06:47:04Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.depositException | publishedGoldOA |
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Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.