How well can a seasonal forecast system represent 3 hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe?
dc.contributor.author | Owen, LE | |
dc.contributor.author | Catto, JL | |
dc.contributor.author | Dunstone, NJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Stephenson, DB | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T06:58:19Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-06-08 | |
dc.description.abstract | Extreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society, particularly when they occur at the same place and time. In this study the Met Office's Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) model ensembles are evaluated against the reanalysis dataset ERA5, to find out how well they represent 3 hourly extreme precipitation, extreme wind and extreme co-occurring events over Europe. Although substantial differences in magnitude are found between precipitation and wind extremes between the datasets, the conditional probability of exceedance above the 99th percentile, which measures the co-occurrence between the two extremes, compares well spatially over Europe. However, significant differences in frequency are found around and over some areas of high topography. Generally GloSea5 underestimates this co-occurrence over sea. The model's co-occurring events at individual locations investigated occur with very similar synoptic patterns to ERA5, indicating that the compound extremes are produced for the correct reasons. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | University of Exeter College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 8 June 2021 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac092e | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/126075 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | IOP Publishing | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Open access. As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately. Although reasonable endeavours have been taken to obtain all necessary permissions from third parties to include their copyrighted content within this article, their full citation and copyright line may not be present in this Accepted Manuscript version. Before using any content from this article, please refer to the Version of Record on IOPscience once published for full citation and copyright details, as permission may be required. All third party content is fully copyright protected, and is not published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY licence, unless that is specifically stated in the figure caption in the Version of Record. | en_GB |
dc.subject | compound extremes | en_GB |
dc.subject | precipitation | en_GB |
dc.subject | wind speed | en_GB |
dc.subject | model evaluation | en_GB |
dc.title | How well can a seasonal forecast system represent 3 hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe? | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2021-06-16T06:58:19Z | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Environmental Research Letters | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2021 | |
rioxxterms.version | AM | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2021-06-08 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2021-06-16T06:55:15Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2021-06-16T07:01:33Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Open access. As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately.
Although reasonable endeavours have been taken to obtain all necessary permissions from third parties to include their copyrighted content within this article, their full citation and copyright line may not be present in this Accepted Manuscript version. Before using any content from this article, please refer to the Version of Record on IOPscience once published for full citation and copyright details, as permission may be required. All third party content is fully copyright protected, and is not published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY licence, unless that is specifically stated in the figure caption in the Version of Record.