Diversity effects in subjective probability judgment
dc.contributor.author | Hadjichristidis, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Geipel, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Pillai, KG | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-01-10T14:14:42Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-11-09 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-01-10T11:15:59Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Previous research has shown that the judged probability of an event depends on whether its description mentions examples (“What is the probability that a randomly chosen Italian businessman will travel during the next month to Warsaw, Budapest, Prague or some other European city?”) or does not mention examples (“What is the probability that a randomly chosen Italian businessman will travel during the next month to a European city?”). Here, we examined descriptions that mention examples and manipulated whether these are relatively similar (e.g., Warsaw, Budapest, Prague) or diverse (e.g., Warsaw, Marseilles, Helsinki). Four experiments (N = 1112) revealed a diversity effect: Overall, descriptions with diverse examples received higher probability judgments than descriptions with similar examples. We discuss several possible mechanisms for this effect, such as that descriptions with diverse examples prompt fuller representations of the target category or that the effect is driven by a representativeness or proximity heuristic. | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 1-30 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 9 November 2021 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2021.2000494 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/128340 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Routledge | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://osf.io/5smq8/?view_only=776ca41fecdd4a2191c442e531f488ed | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | Under embargo until 9 November 2022 in compliance with publisher policy | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This version is made available under the CC-BY-NC 4.0 license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.subject | Probability judgment | en_GB |
dc.subject | support theory | en_GB |
dc.subject | diversity | en_GB |
dc.subject | coverage | en_GB |
dc.subject | representativeness heuristic | en_GB |
dc.subject | proximity heuristic | en_GB |
dc.title | Diversity effects in subjective probability judgment | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-01-10T14:14:42Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1354-6783 | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Routledge via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1464-0708 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Thinking and Reasoning | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Thinking & Reasoning | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2021-10-23 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2021-11-09 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-01-10T14:07:42Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.panel | C | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2021-11-09 |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This version is made available under the CC-BY-NC 4.0 license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/