Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?
dc.contributor.author | Kondo, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Sitch, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Ciais, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Achard, F | |
dc.contributor.author | Kato, E | |
dc.contributor.author | Pongratz, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Houghton, RA | |
dc.contributor.author | Canadell, JG | |
dc.contributor.author | Patra, PK | |
dc.contributor.author | Friedlingstein, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Li, W | |
dc.contributor.author | Anthoni, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Arneth, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Chevallier, F | |
dc.contributor.author | Ganzenmüller, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Harper, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Jain, AK | |
dc.contributor.author | Koven, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Lienert, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Lombardozzi, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Maki, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Nabel, JEMS | |
dc.contributor.author | Nakamura, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Niwa, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Peylin, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Poulter, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Pugh, TAM | |
dc.contributor.author | Rödenbeck, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Saeki, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Stocker, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Viovy, N | |
dc.contributor.author | Wiltshire, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Zaehle, S | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-04-12T09:04:38Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-12-24 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-04-12T07:48:05Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 36(1), article e2020GB006909 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gb006909 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129351 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-1821-8561 (Sitch, Stephen) | |
dc.identifier | ScopusID: 6603113016 (Sitch, Stephen) | |
dc.identifier | ResearcherID: F-8034-2015 (Sitch, Stephen) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-3309-4739 (Friedlingstein, Pierre) | |
dc.identifier | ScopusID: 6602135031 (Friedlingstein, Pierre) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0001-7294-6039 (Harper, Anna) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2021 The Authors.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes | en_GB |
dc.title | Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing? | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-04-12T09:04:38Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0886-6236 | |
exeter.article-number | ARTN e2020GB006909 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability Statement: TRENDY data for this research are available through Le Quéré, Andrew, Friedlingstein, Sitch, Hauck, et al. (2018), ACTM data are through Saeki and Patra (2017), NICAM-TM data are through Niwa et al. (2012), JMA inversion data are through Maki et al. (2010), H&N data are through Houghton and Nassikas (2017), and BLUE data are through Hansis et al. (2015), respectively. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1944-9224 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Global Biogeochemical Cycles | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36(1) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2021-12-09 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-01-24 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-04-12T09:02:41Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-04-12T09:04:47Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2021-12-06 |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2021 The Authors.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes