Forecasting the COVID-19 diffusion in Italy and the related occupancy of intensive care units
dc.contributor.author | Fenga, L | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-05-17T08:30:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-01-16 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-05-16T17:10:25Z | |
dc.description.abstract | This paper provides a model-based method for the forecast of the total number of currently COVID-19 positive individuals and of the occupancy of the available intensive care units in Italy. The predictions obtained—for a time horizon of 10 days starting from March 29th—will be provided at a national as well as at a more disaggregated level, following a criterion based on the magnitude of the phenomenon. While those regions hit the most by the pandemic have been kept separated, those less affected regions have been aggregated into homogeneous macroareas. Results show that—within the forecast period considered (March 29th–April 7th)—all of the Italian regions will show a decreasing number of COVID-19 positive people. The same will be observed for the number of people who will need to be hospitalized in an intensive care unit. These estimates are valid under constancy of the government’s current containment policies. In this scenario, northern regions will remain the most affected ones, whereas no significant outbreaks are foreseen in the southern regions. | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 1-9 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 2021, article 5982784 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5982784 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129650 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-8185-2680 (Fenga, Livio) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Hindawi | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2021 Livio Fenga. This is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.title | Forecasting the COVID-19 diffusion in Italy and the related occupancy of intensive care units | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-05-17T08:30:49Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1687-952X | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available from Hindawi via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability: The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1687-9538 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Journal of Probability and Statistics | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2021 | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2020-09-16 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2021-01-16 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-05-17T08:27:28Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-05-17T08:31:05Z | |
refterms.panel | C | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2021-01-16 |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2021 Livio Fenga. This is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.