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dc.contributor.authorChan, PW
dc.contributor.authorCatto, JL
dc.contributor.authorCollins, M
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-20T11:06:09Z
dc.date.issued2022-09-01
dc.date.updated2022-10-20T10:32:36Z
dc.description.abstractExtra-tropical continental summer heatwaves often occur under persistent anticyclones or blocking. Here we partition heatwave changes into contributions from blocking changes, heatwave–blocking relation change and mean temperature increase, under global warming in climate models. We employ an optimized blocking index that best correlates with heatwaves (Pearson correlation of 0.7) and find heatwave-driving blocking decreases but the change in heatwave–blocking relation likely dominates. Over Europe, with a historical heatwave frequency of 2.5%, less blocking will cause 0.6% fewer heatwaves, steepened heatwave–blocking relation will cause 1.4% more heatwaves, and the mean temperature increase will cause 60% more heatwaves. Over Greenland, flattened heatwave–blocking relation will dominate over the insignificant decrease in blocking. The future increase in heatwave frequency is not caused by changes in blocking frequency, but by factors such as thermodynamics, that enhance the capacity of blocking to drive heatwaves.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)en_GB
dc.format.extent68-
dc.identifier.citationVol. 5, article 68en_GB
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00290-2
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/S004645/1en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/131346
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0003-1843-5566 (Chan, Pak Wah)
dc.identifierResearcherID: AHC-3455-2022 (Chan, Pak Wah)
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0002-8662-1398 (Catto, Jennifer L)
dc.identifierResearcherID: B-3637-2013 (Catto, Jennifer L)
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0003-3785-6008 (Collins, Matthew)
dc.identifierResearcherID: F-8473-2011 (Collins, Matthew)
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNature Researchen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6en_GB
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.en_GB
dc.titleHeatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warmingen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2022-10-20T11:06:09Z
dc.identifier.issn2397-3722
exeter.article-number68
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recorden_GB
dc.descriptionData availability; CMIP6 model data are available from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.en_GB
dc.descriptionCode availability: Computer code to repeat the results is available on Zenodo. The D13 blocking index code is provided by Etienne Dunn-Sigouin. This study uses xarray and scikit-learn.en_GB
dc.identifier.eissn2397-3722
dc.identifier.journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Scienceen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5(1)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-08-01
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2022-09-01
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2022-10-20T11:04:18Z
refterms.versionFCDVoR
refterms.dateFOA2022-10-20T11:06:12Z
refterms.panelBen_GB
refterms.dateFirstOnline2022-09-01


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© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.