Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming
dc.contributor.author | Chan, PW | |
dc.contributor.author | Catto, JL | |
dc.contributor.author | Collins, M | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-10-20T11:06:09Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-09-01 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-10-20T10:32:36Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Extra-tropical continental summer heatwaves often occur under persistent anticyclones or blocking. Here we partition heatwave changes into contributions from blocking changes, heatwave–blocking relation change and mean temperature increase, under global warming in climate models. We employ an optimized blocking index that best correlates with heatwaves (Pearson correlation of 0.7) and find heatwave-driving blocking decreases but the change in heatwave–blocking relation likely dominates. Over Europe, with a historical heatwave frequency of 2.5%, less blocking will cause 0.6% fewer heatwaves, steepened heatwave–blocking relation will cause 1.4% more heatwaves, and the mean temperature increase will cause 60% more heatwaves. Over Greenland, flattened heatwave–blocking relation will dominate over the insignificant decrease in blocking. The future increase in heatwave frequency is not caused by changes in blocking frequency, but by factors such as thermodynamics, that enhance the capacity of blocking to drive heatwaves. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 68- | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 5, article 68 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00290-2 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/S004645/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/131346 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-1843-5566 (Chan, Pak Wah) | |
dc.identifier | ResearcherID: AHC-3455-2022 (Chan, Pak Wah) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-8662-1398 (Catto, Jennifer L) | |
dc.identifier | ResearcherID: B-3637-2013 (Catto, Jennifer L) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-3785-6008 (Collins, Matthew) | |
dc.identifier | ResearcherID: F-8473-2011 (Collins, Matthew) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. | en_GB |
dc.title | Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-10-20T11:06:09Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2397-3722 | |
exeter.article-number | 68 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability; CMIP6 model data are available from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. | en_GB |
dc.description | Code availability: Computer code to repeat the results is available on Zenodo. The D13 blocking index code is provided by Etienne Dunn-Sigouin. This study uses xarray and scikit-learn. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2397-3722 | |
dc.identifier.journal | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5(1) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-08-01 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-09-01 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-10-20T11:04:18Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-10-20T11:06:12Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2022-09-01 |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.