Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day
dc.contributor.author | Scaife, AA | |
dc.contributor.author | Hermanson, L | |
dc.contributor.author | van Niekerk, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Andrews, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Baldwin, MP | |
dc.contributor.author | Belcher, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Bett, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Comer, RE | |
dc.contributor.author | Dunstone, NJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Geen, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Hardiman, SC | |
dc.contributor.author | Ineson, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Knight, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Nie, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Ren, H-L | |
dc.contributor.author | Smith, D | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-11T14:15:28Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-10-03 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-11-11T14:09:13Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Angular momentum is fundamental to the structure and variability of the atmosphere and therefore has an important influence on regional weather and climate. Total atmospheric angular momentum is also directly related to the rotation rate of the Earth and, hence, the length of day. However, the long-range predictability of fluctuations in the length of the day and atmospheric angular momentum is unknown. Here we show that fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum and the length of day are predictable out to more than a year ahead and that this provides an atmospheric source of long-range predictability for surface climate. Using ensemble forecasts from a dynamical climate model, we demonstrate long-range predictability of signals in the atmospheric angular momentum field that propagate slowly and coherently polewards due to wave–mean flow interaction within the atmosphere. These predictable signals are also shown to precede changes in extratropical climate via the North Atlantic Oscillation and the extratropical jet stream. These results extend the lead time for length-of-day predictions, provide a source of long-range predictability from within the atmosphere and provide a link between geodesy and climate prediction. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Newton Fund | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | China National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 15(10), pp. 789-793 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | GA 776613 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/S004645/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2018YFC1506004 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/131742 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-5189-7538 (Scaife, AA) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-6273-4128 (Baldwin, MP) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7003975 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/Home/home_node.html | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://zenodo.org/record/7003975 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © Crown 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. | en_GB |
dc.title | Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-11-11T14:15:28Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1752-0894 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability: Atmospheric angular momentum data from the model predictions are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7003975. Observed length-of-day data are available from https://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/Home/home_node.html. | en_GB |
dc.description | Code availability: The code we used to calculate atmospheric angular momentum is available from https://zenodo.org/record/7003975 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1752-0908 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature Geoscience | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-08-25 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-10-03 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-11-11T14:12:24Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-11-11T14:15:30Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2022-10-03 |
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