Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia
dc.contributor.author | Ritchie, PDL | |
dc.contributor.author | Parry, I | |
dc.contributor.author | Clarke, JJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Huntingford, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Cox, PM | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-12-16T11:00:14Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-09-01 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-12-16T10:12:51Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Earth System Models project a wide range of rainfall changes in the Amazon rainforest, and hence changes in soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Hydrological changes are heterogeneous, meaning local measurements are too sparse to constrain projections of large-scale hydrological change. Here we show that changes in the amplitude of the temperature seasonal cycle are strongly correlated with annual mean evaporative fraction (surface latent heat flux as a fraction of surface net radiation) changes, across reanalyses and Earth System Model projections. We find an increase in annual temperature amplitude of 1 °C is associated with a reduction in evaporative fraction of up to 0.04. The observed temperature seasonal cycle amplitude increase (0.4 °C) over the last three decades implies Amazon drying, determined in the absence of soil or energy flux measurements, matches Earth System Model simulations of the recent past. Additionally, Earth System Models predict further temperature seasonal cycle amplitude increases, suggesting drying will continue with future climate change. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Research Council (ERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 199- | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 3(1), article 199 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 742472 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 821003 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/132043 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-7649-2991 (Ritchie, Paul DL) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-6250-1543 (Clarke, Joseph J) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-0679-2219 (Cox, Peter M) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/M2TMNXFLX_5.12.4/summary?keywords=MERRA-2 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/PaulRitchie89/CEE_code | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.title | Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-12-16T11:00:14Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2662-4435 | |
exeter.article-number | 199 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability: The datasets analysed during this study are available online: CMIP6 model output [https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/], ERA5 reanalysis output [https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5], HadCRUT5 observational data [https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/], NCEP-DOE reanalysis output [https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html], MERRA2 reanalysis output [https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/M2TMNXFLX_5.12.4/summary?keywords=MERRA-2], JRA-55 reanalysis output [https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/]. | en_GB |
dc.description | Code availability: Code for reproducing the main plots of the manuscript is publicly available at https://github.com/PaulRitchie89/CEE_code. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2662-4435 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Communications Earth & Environment | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-08-04 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-09-01 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-12-16T10:55:21Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-12-16T11:00:18Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2022-09-01 |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/