Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
dc.contributor.author | Palmer, TE | |
dc.contributor.author | McSweeney, CF | |
dc.contributor.author | Booth, BBB | |
dc.contributor.author | Priestley, MDK | |
dc.contributor.author | Davini, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Brunner, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Borchert, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Menary, MB | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-04-24T07:06:26Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-04-21 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-04-21T16:03:21Z | |
dc.description.abstract | We have created a performance-based assessment of CMIP6 models for Europe that can be used to inform the sub-selection of models for this region. Our assessment covers criteria indicative of the ability of individual models to capture a range of large-scale processes that are important for the representation of present-day European climate. We use this study to provide examples of how this performance-based assessment may be applied to a multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 models to (a) filter the ensemble for performance against these climatological and processed-based criteria and (b) create a smaller subset of models based on performance that also maintains model diversity and the filtered projection range as far as possible. Filtering by excluding the least-realistic models leads to higher-sensitivity models remaining in the ensemble as an emergent consequence of the assessment. This results in both the 25th percentile and the median of the projected temperature range being shifted towards greater warming for the filtered set of models. We also weight the unfiltered ensemble against global trends. In contrast, this shifts the distribution towards less warming. This highlights a tension for regional model selection in terms of selection based on regional climate processes versus the global mean warming trend. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Research Council (ERC) | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 457-483 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 14 (2), pp. 457-483 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 776613 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 390683824 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | ANR-20-ERC9-0001 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 821003 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | ANR-20-ERC9-0001 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/132979 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-5488-3959 (Priestley, Matthew) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Copernicus Publications / European Geosciences Union (EGU) | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://docs.esmvaltool.org/en/latest/recipes/recipe_climwip.html | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.782884 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home | en_GB |
dc.rights | © Author(s) 2023. Open access. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. | en_GB |
dc.title | Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-04-24T07:06:26Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2190-4987 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Code and data availability: The code used to apply the ClimWIP method is publicly available via the ESMValTool (https://docs.esmvaltool.org/en/latest/recipes/recipe_climwip.html, ESMValTool, 2022). The data used in this study are available through the ESGF data portal at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ (CMIP, 2022). Further assessment plots for the models used in this paper are available on GitHub at https://github.com/tepmo42/cmip6_european_assessment (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.782884, Palmer et al., 2023), as is a spreadsheet of all available assessments (for Europe) carried out for CMIP6 models to date. The RAPID-MOC monitoring project is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and data (Frajka-Williams et al., 2021). E-OBS data (v.14.0, Cornes et al., 2018) can be found at https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php, in Cornes et al. (2018). The HadISST dataset (Rayner et al., 2003) is publicly available for download at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. The ERA5 data (Hersbach et al., 2020) are available for download through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (2017) at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Earth System Dynamics | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Earth System Dynamics, 14 | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-03-17 | |
dcterms.dateSubmitted | 2022-12-22 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-04-21 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-04-21T16:03:23Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-04-24T07:06:28Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
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