Approximate Bayesian inference for analysis of spatio-temporal flood frequency data

Abstract

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and ungauged catchments. A major methodological challenge is to find a suitable parametrization for the GEV distribution when covariates or latent spatial effects are involved. Other challenges involve balancing model complexity and parsimony using an appropriate model selection procedure, and making inference using a reliable and computationally efficient approach. Our approach relies on a latent Gaussian modeling framework with a novel multivariate link function designed to separate the interpretation of the parameters at the latent level and to avoid unreasonable estimates of the shape and time trend parameters. Structured additive regression models are proposed for the four parameters at the latent level. For computational efficiency with large datasets and richly parametrized models, we exploit an accurate and fast approximate Bayesian inference approach. We applied our proposed methodology to annual peak river flow data from 554 catchments across the United Kingdom (UK). Our model performed well in terms of flood predictions for both gauged and ungauged catchments. The results show that the spatial model components for the transformed location and scale parameters, and the time trend, are all important. Posterior estimates of the time trend parameters correspond to an average increase of about $1.5\%$ per decade and reveal a spatial structure across the UK. To estimate return levels for spatial aggregates, we further develop a novel copula-based post-processing approach of posterior predictive samples, in order to mitigate the effect of the conditional independence assumption at the data level, and we show that our approach provides accurate results.