Climate Change and the Tourism Sector: Impacts and Adaptations at Visitor Attractions. Final Report

Abstract

Climate change is a major consideration in the management, operations and outcomes of businesses and organisations. Very little is known about how weather impacts on visitation and spend in the heritage sector as a major part of the UK visitor economy. This report presents the findings of research on the relationship historically and into the future (to 2080).

Funded by the UK Climate Resilience Programme, this research first examined data for three financial years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2017/18-2019/20) for 65 and 14 properties operated by the National Trust (NT) and Historic Environment Scotland (HES), respectively. This provided a basis for estimating possible future outcomes associated with three sets of models (Ensemble Members) under RCP8.5 in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) 2018, from the 2020s to 2070s.

The methods used in the research are detailed in two separate Technical Reports. In addition to the extensive quantitative analysis -which was the main focus for this research and which comprises the majority of this document (Section 4 deals with historical data; Section 5 with the future)-, the findings from site visits and interviews with general managers (GMs) -to understand issues as experienced ‘on the ground’- are also briefly reported (Section 6).

Weather is perceived as strongly related to visitor business for both the NT and HES. Subtle differences observed at property level qualify this observation and demand more localised considerations. In the historical evidence, more comfortable weather days are associated with higher visitor numbers and spend. Extreme weather events, in particular (named) storms and heat wave conditions are accompanied by reduced visitation and sales.

Modelling from UKCP18 data for the 79 properties suggests improvement over time in the weather conditions for visitation. For Ensemble Member 9 of RCP8.5 (i.e. the higher estimate of future temperature), the average HCI score (a measure of visitor comfort) for each property increases by 7.6% for NT and 9.1% for HES properties (to 67.8 and 63.6 respectively) in years during the 2070s compared to the baseline period (i.e. 2017/18-2019/20). If the same visitation and spend patterns occur in the future as in the past, for the ‘average NT property’ visitor numbers and sales may increase between 9.4 and 14.0% and 10.1 and 14.5% respectively from the baseline years to years in the 2070s. Estimated increases for the ‘average HES property’ in visitor numbers and sales range from 17.9% to 23.6% and 13.6 to 19.2%.

Individual property-level estimates demonstrate variability, with possible increases of 6.4-11.5% for visitors and 8.4-13.2% for sales in the NT sample. Among the HES sample, values were higher, ranging from 23.1 to 34.2% for visitors and 16.5 to 26.9% sales. Improvements in visitation and revenue associated changing weather over time are greater in Scotland, Wales and the North of England compared to the South West, London and the South East of England. The complexity of the relationship between weather and local property-based offers makes it difficult to recommend general areas, localities or regions as foci for future activity. Properties with stronger correlations between weather and visitation, as well as potentially greater improvements in future weather and performance may require prioritisation.

However, the results should not be misinterpreted. They remind us that climate change is a continuous and unfolding process, and they point clearly to significant challenges ahead in managing heritage properties sustainably for visitors. Not only does a changing climate threaten the natural and cultural heritage assets that the NT and HES manage on behalf of the public. It also has the potential to impact, inter alia, on the carrying capacity of properties; the quality of the visitor experience; the management of people, sites and visits safely and responsibly; and the costs of doing business. The extreme temperatures and heat waves of 2022 and 2023, although more severe than conditions encountered at properties between 2017 and 2019, offer a brief insight into conditions that the climate modelling advises will be more common in the future. In addition to wind and heat, the research suggests the need for operational adjustments for other extreme and high impact weather in the future.

Three areas for future actions are recommended. First, weather and climate are already issues in the consciousness of the NT and HES. However, the ways in which they impact on heritage properties as visitor attractions is complex and nuanced. The facilitation of greater knowledge transfer would encourage more effective organisational- and local-level responses. Second, dedicated property-level analyses would be beneficial for climate-informed future management at both the local and the organisational levels. Finally, far less is known about how weather is related to operating costs in heritage properties as visitor businesses. At present, a ‘known-unknown’ is the extent to which any future growth will be offset by costs.