RECCAP2 future component: Consistency and potential for regional assessment to constrain global projections
dc.contributor.author | Jones, CD | |
dc.contributor.author | Ziehn, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Anand, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Bastos, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Burke, E | |
dc.contributor.author | Canadell, JG | |
dc.contributor.author | Cardoso, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Ernst, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Jain, AK | |
dc.contributor.author | Jeong, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Keller, ED | |
dc.contributor.author | Kondo, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Lauerwald, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Lin, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Murray‐Tortarolo, G | |
dc.contributor.author | Nabuurs, G | |
dc.contributor.author | O’Sullivan, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Poulter, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Qin, X | |
dc.contributor.author | von Randow, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Sanches, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Schepaschenko, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Shvidenko, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Smallman, TL | |
dc.contributor.author | Tian, H | |
dc.contributor.author | Villalobos, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, X | |
dc.contributor.author | Yun, J | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-15T10:26:16Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-11-07 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-11-15T10:02:05Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Projections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region‐by‐region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi‐model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross‐model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil‐fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | CarbonWatch-NZ Endeavour Research Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | São Paulo Research Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Science Foundation (NSF) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Andrew Carnegie Fellow Program | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | CNPq | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Korea Ministry of Environment | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Environmental Science Program | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 4, No. 6, article e2023AV001024 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001024 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 101003536 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 776810 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 101000574 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | GA01101 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | C01X1817 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2015/50122-0 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2017/22269-2 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2020/15230-5 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 1903722 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | G-F-19-56910 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 314780/2020-3 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | RS-2023-00232066 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/R016518/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N018079/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/134540 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Wiley / American Geophysical Union | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/ChrisJones-MOHC/RECCAP2Future_2023 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8420250 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2023 Crown copyright, Commonwealth of Australia and The Authors. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. | en_GB |
dc.title | RECCAP2 future component: Consistency and potential for regional assessment to constrain global projections | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-15T10:26:16Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2576-604X | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability Statement: All CMIP6 model output datasets analyzed during this study are available online at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ and code required to reproduce figures is available at https://github.com/ChrisJones-MOHC/RECCAP2Future_2023 (ChrisJones-MOHC, 2023) and Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8420250. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | AGU Advances | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-09-16 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-11-07 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-11-15T10:19:22Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-11-15T10:27:05Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2023-11-07 |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2023 Crown copyright, Commonwealth of Australia and The Authors. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.