Climate Models Underestimate Dynamic Cloud Feedbacks in the Tropics
dc.contributor.author | Hill, PG | |
dc.contributor.author | Holloway, CE | |
dc.contributor.author | Byrne, MP | |
dc.contributor.author | Lambert, FH | |
dc.contributor.author | Webb, MJ | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-16T15:47:26Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-08-02 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-11-16T15:38:55Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Cloud feedbacks are the leading cause of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The complex coupling between clouds and the large-scale circulation in the tropics contributes to this uncertainty. To address this problem, the coupling between clouds and circulation in the latest generation of climate models is compared to observations. Significant biases are identified in the models. The implications of these biases are assessed by combining observations of the present day with future changes predicted by models to calculate observationally constrained feedbacks. For the dynamic cloud feedback (i.e., due to changes in circulation), the observationally constrained values are consistently larger than the model-only values. This is due to models failing to capture a nonlinear minimum in cloud brightness for weakly descending regimes. Consequently, while the models consistently predict that these regimes increase in frequency in association with a weakening tropical circulation, they underestimate the positive cloud feedback associated with this increase. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 50(15), article e2023GL104573 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl104573 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/T006315/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/134569 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-4664-1327 (Lambert, FH) | |
dc.identifier | ScopusID: 56575686800 (Lambert, FH) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://rda.ucar.edu/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/data/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/PeterGHill/CMIP6_DynamicCloudFeedbacks | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2023. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.title | Climate Models Underestimate Dynamic Cloud Feedbacks in the Tropics | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-16T15:47:26Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0094-8276 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability Statement: The climate model data used in this study are available from the Earth System Grid Foundation https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/. ERA5 data are available from the Copernicus Climate Data Store https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu. MERRA2 data were downloaded from https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2. JRA55 were downloaded from the NCAR research data archive https://rda.ucar.edu/. CERES-EBAF data were downloaded from https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/data/. Python code used to perform the analysis described in this study is available from https://github.com/PeterGHill/CMIP6_DynamicCloudFeedbacks. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1944-8007 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Geophysical Research Letters | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Research Letters, 50(15) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-07-21 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-08-02 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-11-16T15:45:34Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-11-16T15:47:34Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2023-08-02 |
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