dc.contributor.author | Ramon, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Lledó, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Ferro, CAT | |
dc.contributor.author | Doblas-Reyes, FJ | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-24T16:30:01Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-12-12 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-11-23T11:41:48Z | |
dc.description.abstract | The probabilistic skill of seasonal prediction systems is often inferred using reanalysis data,
assuming these benchmark observations to be error-free. However, an increasing number of studies
report non-negligible levels of uncertainty affecting reanalysis observations, especially when it comes
to variables like precipitation or wind speed. We consider different possibilities to account for such
error in forecast quality assessment, either exploiting the newly produced ensemble reanalyses (e.g.
ERA5-EDA) or applying methodologies that use scores that take observational uncertainty into
account. We illustrate the benefits of employing ensemble reanalyses over traditional reanalyses,
and show how the true skill can be approximated, whatever the observational reference. We
ultimately emphasise the perils and quantify the error committed when the observational reference,
either reanalysis or point dataset, is selected arbitrarily for verifying a seasonal prediction system. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | MICINN | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 12 December 2023 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/qj.4628 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | BES-2017-082216 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/134641 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-9830-9270 (Ferro, Christopher) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | Under embargo until 12 December 2024 in compliance with publisher policy | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2023 Wiley | |
dc.subject | observation error | en_GB |
dc.subject | Brier Score | en_GB |
dc.subject | model ranking | en_GB |
dc.subject | seasonal prediction | en_GB |
dc.subject | wind speed | en_GB |
dc.title | Uncertainties in the observational reference: implications in skill assessment and model ranking of seasonal predictions | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-24T16:30:01Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1477-870X | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability: HadISD monthly-averaged wind records are available from Zeng et al. (2019) upon request | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-11-16 | |
dcterms.dateSubmitted | 2023-05-08 | |
rioxxterms.version | AM | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-05-08 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-11-23T11:41:52Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |