Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points
dc.contributor.author | Abrams, JF | |
dc.contributor.author | Huntingford, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Williamson, MS | |
dc.contributor.author | McKay, DIA | |
dc.contributor.author | Boulton, CA | |
dc.contributor.author | Buxton, JE | |
dc.contributor.author | Sakschewski, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Loriani, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Zimm, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Winkelmann, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Lenton, TM | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-01-18T14:45:18Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-11-06 | |
dc.date.updated | 2024-01-18T13:29:05Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard-to-mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non-zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net-zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | The Earth Commission | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | DARPA ACTM AIE program | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Open Society Initiative | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Bezos Earth Fund | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 11(11), e2022EF003250 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003250 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | HR0011-22-9-0031 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | OR2021-82956 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/R016429/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/135055 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-0411-8519 (Abrams, Jesse F) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-4548-8922 (Williamson, Mark S) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0001-7836-9391 (Boulton, Chris A) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7158090 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.title | Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2024-01-18T14:45:18Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2328-4277 | |
exeter.article-number | ARTN e2022EF003250 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability Statement: The ranges for tipping point thresholds are taken from Armstrong McKay et al. (2022). RCP CO2e emissions are available from Meinshausen et al. (2011). The code and scripts used to calculate the commitment temperatures and perform the Bayesian analysis for tipping probabilities are available from Abrams (2022). | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2328-4277 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Earth's Future | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Earth's Future, 11(11) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-10-07 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-11-06 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2024-01-18T14:40:52Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2024-01-18T14:45:25Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2023-11-06 |
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