Quantifying causal teleconnections to drought and fire risks in Indonesian Borneo
dc.contributor.author | Lam, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Catto, JL | |
dc.contributor.author | Barciela, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Harper, AB | |
dc.contributor.author | Challenor, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Arribas, A | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-04-02T11:58:23Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2024-03-28 | |
dc.date.updated | 2024-04-01T17:00:31Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Fires occurring over the peatlands in Indonesian Borneo accompanied by droughts have posed devastating impacts on human health, livelihoods, economy and the natural environment, and their prevention requires comprehensive understanding of climate-associated risk. Although it is widely known that the droughts are associated with El Niño events, the onset process of El Niño and thus the drought precursors and their possible changes under the future climate are not clearly understood. Here, we use a causal network approach to quantify the strength of teleconnections to droughts at a seasonal timescale shown in observations and climate models. We portray two drivers of June-July-August (JJA) droughts identified through literature review and causal analysis, namely Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) in JJA (El Niño Southern Oscillation [abbreviated as ENSO]) and SST anomaly over the eastern North Pacific to the east of the Hawaiian Islands (abbreviated as Pacific SST) in March-April-May (MAM) period. We argue that the droughts are strongly linked to ENSO variability, with drier years corresponding to El Niño conditions. The droughts can be predicted with a lead time of 3 months based on their associations with Pacific SST, with higher SST preceding drier conditions. We find that under the SSP585 scenario, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensembles show significant increase in both the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the Indonesian Borneo region in JJA (p = 0.006) and its linear association with Pacific SST in MAM (p = 0.001) from year 2061 to 2100 compared with the historical baseline. Some models are showing unrealistic amounts of JJA rainfall and underestimate drought risks in Indonesian Borneo and their teleconnections, owing to the underestimation of ENSO amplitude and overestimation of local convections. Our study strengthens the possibility of early warning triggers of fires and stresses the need for taking enhanced climate risk into consideration when formulating long-term policies to eliminate fires. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 28 March 2024 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8442 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/S022074/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/135663 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-8662-1398 (Catto, Jennifer L) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/search/cmip6-ceda/ | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.title | Quantifying causal teleconnections to drought and fire risks in Indonesian Borneo | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2024-04-02T11:58:23Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0899-8418 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability statement: Datasets for this research are openly available in the in-text citations. For observational estimates (ERA5, CHIRPS, Hadley SST, etc.), readers are referred to Tables S1 and S2 for details. Climate model data used in this study are available from the CMIP6 archive at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/search/cmip6-ceda/ | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1097-0088 | |
dc.identifier.journal | International Journal of Climatology | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | International Journal of Climatology | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2024-03-08 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2024-03-28 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2024-04-02T11:55:29Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2024-04-02T11:58:29Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2024-03-28 |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.