Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system
Cox, Peter M.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
The Royal Society
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.
Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society. NOTICE: This is the author’s version of a work accepted for publication by The Royal Society. The definitive version was subsequently published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Vol. 370, Number 1962, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0306
Vol. 370 (1962), pp. 1166-1184
Place of publication