Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system
Ashwin, Peter; Wieczorek, Sebastian; Vitolo, Renato; et al.Cox, Peter M.
Date: 2012
Journal
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Publisher
The Royal Society
Publisher DOI
Related links
Abstract
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a ...
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.
Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
Item views 0
Full item downloads 0