Deterrence, escalation, and the offence-defence balance: Considerations for UK maritime strategy

Abstract

The contemporary strategic environment of intensifying major-power competition creates perilous incentives for hostile states to escalate to conflict – and to further escalate such a conflict once it starts – in hope of attaining competitive advantage. Since such escalation could do grievous harm to the UK and our interests, its avoidance is a topic of renewed importance. This article – derived from a discussion paper prepared for the RN Strategic Studies Centre – therefore explores a number of related escalation concerns relevant to contemporary UK maritime strategy. Its focus is astutely manipulating the offence-defence balance to preserve stable deterrence and thus prevent adversary escalation.