Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorSanchez, Claudio
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Keith D.
dc.contributor.authorShutts, Glenn
dc.contributor.authorCollins, Matthew
dc.date.accessioned2014-09-15T13:20:20Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractStochastic physics is one of the preferred methods to represent model uncertainty in ensemble prediction systems of medium-range weather prediction and seasonal forecasting. These schemes increase the ensemble spread and improve probabilistic skill scores. However, little is known about how the stochastic perturbations interact with different atmospheric processes. In order to provide deeper insight into the impacts of stochastic physics on the representation of the atmosphere the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB2) scheme has been used in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) across different time-scales. We use ‘classic’ verification techniques such as the Root Mean Error Square (RMSE) index in combination with novel ‘object-oriented’ verification metrics such as the Reading University Tracking system (RUTRACK) for extratropical cyclones. We find that the SKEB2 degrades the RMSE and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of individual short-range deterministic forecasts. On average the kinetic energy backscatter by the SKEB2 counteracts the excessive dissipation of extratropical cyclones, improving the model, but its forcing does not scale well across resolutions. Over the Tropics the SKEB2 improvements of the mean climatology and temporal variability are noteworthy, but driven by spurious Rossby waves. There are aspects of the SKEB2 that could be improved to create a more realistic stochastic representation of model uncertainty.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJoint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programmeen_GB
dc.identifier.citationPublished online 9 April 2014en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/qj.2328
dc.identifier.grantnumberGA01101en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/15563
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherRoyal Meteorological Societyen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2328en_GB
dc.subjectstochastic physicsen_GB
dc.subjectclimateen_GB
dc.subjectstormsen_GB
dc.titleImpact of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutionsen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.identifier.issn0035-9009
dc.descriptionCopyright © 2014 Royal Meteorological Societyen_GB
dc.identifier.eissn1477-870X
dc.identifier.journalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societyen_GB


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record