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dc.contributor.authorWright, Malcolm
dc.contributor.authorStern, Philip
dc.date.accessioned2015-04-21T08:53:03Z
dc.date.issued2015-04-06
dc.description.abstractThis study develops a simple method for forecasting consumer trial for national product launches. The number of consumers who try a brand in its first year on the market is accurately predicted from the number trying the brand in the first thirteen weeks following launch. No information about the specific category or marketing activities is required– just a simple multiplier computed from analogous series in other markets. These analogues provide an empirical generalization that can be easily applied by practicing managers to track and forecast the success of new brand launches. When subject to an out-of-sample test involving 34 fresh data sets, the analogues demonstrated 43 percent reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to the most accurate marketing science model.en_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 68 (8), pp. 1732–1738
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.032
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/16919
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherElsevieren_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-business-research/en_GB
dc.subjectNew productsen_GB
dc.subjectConsumer trialen_GB
dc.subjectPenetration growthen_GB
dc.subjectAnalogous seriesen_GB
dc.subjectEmpirical generalizationen_GB
dc.subjectPharmaceuticalsen_GB
dc.subjectPackaged goodsen_GB
dc.titleForecasting new product trial with analogous seriesen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2015-04-21T08:53:03Z
dc.identifier.issn0148-2963
dc.descriptiontypes: Articleen_GB
dc.descriptionNOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Business Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Business Research, 2015. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.032en_GB
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Business Researchen_GB


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