A hiatus in the stratosphere?

Abstract

To the Editor —

Since the turn of the twenty-first century there has been a hiatus in the cooling of the lower stratosphere (Fig. 1a). This 'stratospheric hiatus' is happening at the same time as the well-documented hiatus in global surface warming1, during a time of increasing CO2 concentrations ('Surface' line in Fig. 1a). Although CO2 acts to warm the surface and troposphere by decreasing outgoing radiative flux at the tropopause, it cools the stratosphere by increasing net infrared emission, so we might expect the continued increase in CO2 concentrations to have produced lower-stratospheric cooling, as observed through much of the depth of the stratosphere2. Why, then, do we observe a hiatus in the lower stratosphere?