dc.contributor.author | Davies-Barnard, Taraka | |
dc.contributor.author | Valdes, P.J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Singarayer, J.S. | |
dc.contributor.author | Jones, Chris D. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-08-19T09:12:14Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2014-02 | |
dc.description.abstract | Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant 20.49K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to 22.2K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of 20.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 27 (4), pp. 1413 - 1424 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00154.1 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | GA01101 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | Ne/J500033/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/18069 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Meteorological Society | en_GB |
dc.subject | Land surface | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate change | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate prediction | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate models | en_GB |
dc.subject | Land use | en_GB |
dc.subject | Policy | en_GB |
dc.title | Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2015-08-19T09:12:14Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0894-8755 | |
dc.description | © Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1520-0442 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Journal of Climate | en_GB |