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dc.contributor.authorHunter, Alasdair
dc.contributor.authorStephenson, David B.
dc.contributor.authorEconomou, Theodoros
dc.contributor.authorHolland, Mark P.
dc.contributor.authorCook, Ian
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-14T14:11:28Z
dc.date.issued2015-09-29
dc.description.abstractIn this study, the relationship between the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated. A cyclone track database of extended October-March winters was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis. A large positive correlation is found between winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity over the exit region of the North Atlantic storm track in this cyclone track database. Conversely, a negative correlation is found over the Gulf Stream. Possible causes for the dependence are investigated by regressing winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity on teleconnection indices with Poisson and linear models. The indices for the Scandinavian pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern are able to account for most of the observed positive correlation over the North Atlantic. To consider the implications of frequency intensity dependence for the insurance industry, an aggregate risk metric was used as a proxy for the annual aggregate insured loss. Here, the aggregate risk is defined as the sum of the intensities of all events occurring within a season. Assuming independence between the frequency and intensity results in large biases in the variance and the extremes of the aggregate risk, especially over Scandinavia. Therefore including frequency intensity dependence in extratropical cyclone loss models is necessary to model the risk of extreme losses.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipWillis Research Networken_GB
dc.identifier.citationQ. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2015) DOI:10.1002/qj.2649en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/qj.2649
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/18973
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherWileyen_GB
dc.rights.embargoreasonPublisher Policyen_GB
dc.subjectAggregate risken_GB
dc.subjectClusteringen_GB
dc.subjectExtratropical cycloneen_GB
dc.subjectNCEP-NCAR reanalysisen_GB
dc.titleNew perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclonesen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.identifier.issn0035-9009
dc.description© 2015 Royal Meteorological Societyen_GB
dc.descriptionAuthor's final accepted version. The version of record was first published online 29 September 2015, before inclusion in an issue and is available from doi: 10.1002/qj.2649en_GB
dc.descriptionThis article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archivingen_GB
dc.identifier.journalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societyen_GB


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