dc.contributor.author | Friedlingstein, P | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-02-26T11:23:00Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2016-02-24 | |
dc.description.abstract | Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust number — the carbon budget for CO2-induced warming only — is also the least relevant for real-world policy. Including all greenhouse gases and using methods based on scenarios that avoid instead of exceed a given temperature limit results in lower carbon budgets. For a >66% chance of limiting warming below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, the most appropriate carbon budget estimate is 590–1,240 GtCO2 from 2015 onwards. Variations within this range depend on the probability of staying below 2 °C and on end-of-century non-CO2 warming. Current CO2 emissions are about 40 GtCO2 yr–1, and global CO2 emissions thus have to be reduced urgently to keep within a 2 °C-compatible budget | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol 6, pp. 245–252 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/nclimate2868 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/20152 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Publishing Group | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2868.html | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | Publisher's policy. | en_GB |
dc.rights | Copyright © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate change | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate-change mitigation | en_GB |
dc.title | Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.identifier.issn | 1758-678X | |
dc.description | Article | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1758-6798 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature Climate Change | en_GB |