The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000-2013 on global mean temperature trends evaluated in the HadGEM2-ES climate model
Atmospheric Science Letters
Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society
Open access article
The slow-down in global warming over the last decade has lead to significant debate about whether the causes are of natural or anthropogenic origin. Using an ensemble of HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model simulations we investigate the impact of overlooked modest volcanic eruptions. We deduce a global mean cooling of around -0.02 to -0.03K over the period 2008-2012. Thus while these eruptions do cause a cooling of the Earth and may therefore contribute to the slow-down in global warming, they do not appear to be the sole or primary cause. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.
JMH, AJ, and GSJ were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output.
This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.
Vol. 15 (2), pp. 92 - 96