| dc.contributor.author | Scaife, AA | |
| dc.contributor.author | Karpechko, AY | |
| dc.contributor.author | Baldwin, MP | |
| dc.contributor.author | Brookshaw, A | |
| dc.contributor.author | Butler, AH | |
| dc.contributor.author | Eade, R | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gordon, M | |
| dc.contributor.author | Maclachlan, C | |
| dc.contributor.author | Martin, N | |
| dc.contributor.author | Dunstone, N | |
| dc.contributor.author | Smith, D | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-04-04T11:59:30Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2015-10-25 | |
| dc.description.abstract | © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of -6.5 and +4.8hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded. | en_GB |
| dc.description.sponsorship | This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office
Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public
Weather Service research program and the European Union
Framework 7 SPECS project. The contribution of AYK is funded
by FMI’s tenure track program and the Academy of Finland
under grant 286298. | en_GB |
| dc.identifier.citation | Atmospheric Science Letters, 2016, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 51 - 56 | en_GB |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/asl.598 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/20937 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
| dc.publisher | Wiley Open Access | en_GB |
| dc.rights | This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
| dc.title | Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere | en_GB |
| dc.type | Article | en_GB |
| dc.date.available | 2016-04-04T11:59:30Z | |
| dc.description | Published | en_GB |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1530-261X | |
| dc.identifier.journal | Atmospheric Science Letters | en_GB |
