The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Egill Kristjánsson, J
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
American Geophysical Union
This is the final version of the article. Available from the American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this record.
We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO<inf>2</inf> concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes. Key Points Impacts of the abrupt termination of geoengineering are compared in 11 GCMsThe models agree on very rapid global-mean warming following terminationLevels of agreement vary on the geographic patterns of climatic change ©2013 Crown copyright. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. ©2013 American Geophysical Union. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.
A.J. and J.M.H. were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and their contributions are © crown copyright. J.M.H. has also received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme through the EUTRACE project (306395). K.A., J.E.K., U.N., and H.S. have received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme through the IMPLICC project (226567). K.A. and J.E.K. were also partly funded by the Norwegian Research Council’s program for supercomputing (NOTUR). O.B. would like to acknowledge partial support from the FP7 EuTRACE project grant agreement (306395). D.J. and J.M. thank all members of the BNU-ESM model group, as well as the Center of Information and Network Technology at Beijing Normal University for assistance in publishing the GeoMIP data set. B.K. is supported by the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research and B.K.’s simulations were supported by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) program through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. A.R. is supported by NSF grants AGS-1157525 and CBET-1240507. S.T. is supported by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research which is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation. S.W. was supported by the SOUSEI program, MEXT, JAPAN.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2013, Vol. 118, Issue 17, pp. 9743 - 9752