dc.contributor.author | Bracegirdle, TJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Stephenson, DB | |
dc.contributor.author | Turner, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Phillips, T | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-04-13T12:01:41Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015-12-19 | |
dc.description.abstract | Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070-2099) and historical (1970-1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and -0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | We acknowledge the World Climate
Research Programme’s Working Group
on Coupled Modelling, which is
responsible for CMIP, and we thank the
climate modeling groups (listed in Table
S1 of this paper) for producing and
making available their model output. For
CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis
and Intercomparison provided the
coordinating support and led
development of software infrastructure
in partnership with the Global
Organization for Earth System Science
Portals. The original CMIP5 data can be
accessed through the ESGF data portals
(see http://pcmdi-cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/
availability.html). This study is part of the
British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for
Planet Earth Programme. It was funded
by The UK Natural Environment Research
Council (grant reference NE/K00445X/1).
We would like to thank Paul Holland for
his useful discussions and comments on
an earlier version of this manuscript. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 42, pp. 10832 - 10839 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/2015GL067055 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/21085 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | Publisher Policy | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | en_GB |
dc.title | The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.identifier.issn | 0094-8276 | |
dc.description | This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Geophysical Research Letters | en_GB |