The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss
Screen, JA
Date: 6 March 2017
Article
Journal
Nature Communications
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO-). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the
effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. Since NAO- events are associated with colder
winters over Northern Europe, a ...
Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO-). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the
effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. Since NAO- events are associated with colder
winters over Northern Europe, a negatively-shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical
pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble
atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale
NAO- events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO- events,
reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss doesn’t lead to Northern European winter
cooling, and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO
is “missing” because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of
warmer air masses.
Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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