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      Historical trends and variability in heat waves in the United Kingdom

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      Date
      2017-09-30
      Author
      Sanderson, MG
      Economou, T
      Salmon, KH
      Jones, SEO
      Date issued
      2017-09-30
      Journal
      Atmosphere
      Type
      Article
      Language
      en
      Publisher
      MDPI
      Rights
      © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
      Abstract
      Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds.
      Funders/Sponsor
      This work was funded under the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in environmental change and health, led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), the University of Exeter and the Met Office.
      Description
      This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.
      Citation
      Vol. 8 (10), article 191
      DOI
      https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191
      URI
      http://hdl.handle.net/10871/29695
      ISSN
      2073-4433
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      • Mathematics

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