Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
Maia de Lima, M
Marques de Cerqueira, E
eLife Sciences Publications
Open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) locence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting.
Funding: European Research Council (614725-PATHPHYLODYN): Oliver G Pybus Royal Society: Mario Recker Wellcome Trust & Royal Society (204311/Z/16/Z): Nuno Rodrigues Faria Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council: Ben Lambert European Research Council (268904 - DIVERSITY): José Lourenço; Andrew Walker International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program-2 (AID-OAA-A-14-00102): Moritz UG Kraemer
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from eLife Sciences Publications via the DOI in this record.
Vol. 6, article e29820
Place of publication