Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
Lourenço, J; Maia de Lima, M; Faria, NR; et al.Walker, A; Kraemer, MU; Villabona-Arenas, CJ; Lambert, B; Marques de Cerqueira, E; Pybus, OG; Alcantara, LC; Recker, M
Date: 9 September 2017
Journal
ELife
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications
Publisher DOI
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Abstract
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report ...
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting.
Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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