Reputation, Concessions, and Territorial Civil War: Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall, or Don’t They?
Bormann, N; Savun, B
Date: 30 May 2018
Journal
Journal of Peace Research
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Barbara Walter’s application of reputation theory to self-determination movements
has advanced our understanding of why many separatist movements result
in armed conflict. Walter has shown that governments of multi-ethnic societies often
respond to territorial disputes with violence to deter similar future demands
by other ethnic ...
Barbara Walter’s application of reputation theory to self-determination movements
has advanced our understanding of why many separatist movements result
in armed conflict. Walter has shown that governments of multi-ethnic societies often
respond to territorial disputes with violence to deter similar future demands
by other ethnic groups. When governments grant territorial accommodation to one
ethnic group, they encourage other ethnic groups to seek similar concessions. However,
a number of recent empirical studies casts doubt on the validity of Walter’s
argument. We address recent challenges to the efficacy of reputation building in the
context of territorial conflicts by delineating the precise scope conditions of reputation
theory. First, we argue that only concessions granted after fighting should
trigger additional conflict onsets. Second, the demonstration effects should particularly
apply to groups with grievances against the state. We then test the observable
implications of our conditional argument for political power-sharing concessions.
Using a global sample of ethnic groups in 120 states between 1946 and 2013, we
find support for our arguments. Our theoretical framework enables us to identify
the conditions under which different types of governmental concessions are likely to
trigger future conflicts, and thus has important implications for conflict resolution.
Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology
Faculty of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences
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