Can reducing black carbon and methane below RCP2.6 levels keep global warming below 1.5C?
Jones, A; Haywood, JM; Jones, C
Date: 25 April 2018
Article
Journal
Atmospheric Science Letters
Publisher
Wiley
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Methane and black carbon aerosols have been identified as exerting the two strongest positive
radiative forcings after carbon dioxide and therefore drastic reductions in these atmospheric
constituents could potentially offer strong leverage in reducing global warming. Using the
HadGEM2-ES model we reduce concentrations of methane ...
Methane and black carbon aerosols have been identified as exerting the two strongest positive
radiative forcings after carbon dioxide and therefore drastic reductions in these atmospheric
constituents could potentially offer strong leverage in reducing global warming. Using the
HadGEM2-ES model we reduce concentrations of methane and black carbon while holding
all other emissions at representative concentration pathway RCP2.6 levels to examine
whether we can achieve the target of keeping global-mean temperature rise below 1.5 oC
relative to the pre-industrial level during the remainder of the 21st century. We find that even
total cessation of black carbon aerosol emissions is ineffective in attaining this goal.
Reducing methane concentrations at four times the rate assumed in RCP2.6 is able to return
warming levels to below 1.5 oC by the 2070s but overshoots the target level prior to that. As
RCP2.6 represents an optimistic scenario relative to the Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions our results highlight the importance of deep and rapid reductions in both CO2
and methane emissions if humanity is serious about attaining the 1.5 oC target.
Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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