UK Strategy in the Gulf and Middle East After American Retrenchment

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of the possible relative decline of the U.S. and its engagement in the Middle East and the Gulf in particular. US disengagement started under the Obama administration and seems to be continuing under the Trump administration. Applying theories of ‘rival hegemonic transition,’ possible post-Amercan successors are identified. In particular, the UK’s intents, capabilities, and strategies as it returns ‘East of Suez’ are examined, along with the geopolitical implications of such a return for the shifting balance of power in the Middle East.