Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean
Screen, JA; Deser, C
Date: 5 February 2019
Article
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Publisher DOI
Abstract
The Arctic Ocean is projected to become seasonally ice-free before mid-century unless
greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, but exactly when this could occur depends
considerably on internal climate variability. Here we show that trajectories to an ice-free Arctic
are modulated by concomitant shifts in the Interdecadal Pacific ...
The Arctic Ocean is projected to become seasonally ice-free before mid-century unless
greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, but exactly when this could occur depends
considerably on internal climate variability. Here we show that trajectories to an ice-free Arctic
are modulated by concomitant shifts in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Trajectories
starting in the negative IPO phase become ice-free 7 years sooner than those starting in the
positive IPO phase. Trajectories starting in the negative IPO phase subsequently transition
towards the positive IPO phase, on average, with an associated strengthening of the Aleutian
Low, increased poleward energy transport and faster sea-ice loss. The observed IPO began to
transition away from its negative phase in the past few years. If this shift continues, our results
suggest increased likelihood of accelerated sea-ice loss over the coming decades, and an
increased risk of an ice-free Arctic within the next 20-30 years.
Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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