dc.contributor.author | Kwiatkowski, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Bopp, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Aumont, O | |
dc.contributor.author | Ciais, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Cox, PM | |
dc.contributor.author | Laufkötter, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Li, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Séférian, R | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-02-22T12:14:39Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2017-04-10 | |
dc.description.abstract | Marine primary production is a fundamental component of the Earth system, providing the main source of food and energy to the marine food web, and influencing the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 (refs,). Earth system model (ESM) projections of global marine primary production are highly uncer tain with models projecting both increases and declines of up to 20% by 2100. This uncertainty is predominantly driven by the sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to climate change, with the latest ESMs suggesting twenty-first-century tropical declines of between 1 and 30% (refs,). Here we identify an emergent relationship between the long-term sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to rising equatorial zone sea surface temperature (SST) and the interannual sensitivity of primary production to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven SST anomalies. Satellite-based observations of the ENSO sensitivity of tropical primary production are then used to constrain projections of the long-term climate impact on primary production. We estimate that tropical primary production will decline by 3 ± 1% per kelvin increase in equatorial zone SST. Under a business-as-usual emissions scenario this results in an 11 ± 6% decline in tropical marine primary production and a 6 ± 3% decline in global marine primary production by 2100. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 7, pp. 355 - 358 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/nclimate3265 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 641816 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/36025 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. | en_GB |
dc.title | Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2019-02-22T12:14:39Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1758-678X | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature Climate Change | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2017-03-09 | |
rioxxterms.funder | European Research Council | en_GB |
rioxxterms.identifier.project | 610028 | en_GB |
rioxxterms.version | AM | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2017-03-09 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2019-02-22T12:11:25Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2019-02-22T12:14:41Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
rioxxterms.funder.project | 19c409b8-e1b0-4db5-88f8-d9f9ed9515d8 | en_GB |