Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances
dc.contributor.author | Bruun, JT | |
dc.contributor.author | Allen, JI | |
dc.contributor.author | Smyth, TJ | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-02-25T11:17:04Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2017-08-28 | |
dc.description.abstract | The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching ~ influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Nino and ~ subsequent La Nina is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with ~ the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12–14, 61–75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 122, pp. 6746 - 6772 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/2017JC012892 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/36048 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley | en_GB |
dc.relation.source | The time series analysis and simulation codes for this paper is available from the R Core Team open access links (package TSA and deSolve): www.R‐project.org. All the data is freely available and the open access links given in the data section. For the SOI: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/. For the NPIA: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/NP/. For the SSTA: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/enso‐li2013.txt | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2017. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. | en_GB |
dc.subject | SOI | en_GB |
dc.subject | ENSO | en_GB |
dc.subject | signal analysis | en_GB |
dc.subject | extremes | en_GB |
dc.subject | bifurcation | en_GB |
dc.subject | prediction | en_GB |
dc.title | Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2019-02-25T11:17:04Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2169-9275 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2017-07-22 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2017-08-28 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2019-02-25T11:10:07Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2019-02-25T11:17:08Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.depositException | publishedGoldOA | |
refterms.depositExceptionExplanation | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012892 |
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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.