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dc.contributor.authorTokmakian, R
dc.contributor.authorChallenor, PG
dc.date.accessioned2019-03-07T11:34:09Z
dc.date.issued2019-03-12
dc.description.abstractThis paper describes results of an experiment that perturbed the initial conditions for the ocean’s temperature field of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a well defined design. The resulting thirty member ensemble of CESM simulations, each of ten years in length is used to create an emulator (a non-linear regression relating the initial conditions to various outcomes) from the simulators. Through the use of the emulator to expand the output distribution space, we estimate the spatial uncertainties at 10 years for surface air temperature, 25m ocean temperature, precipitation, and rain. Basin averages, outside the tropics, for the uncertainty in the ocean temperature field range between 0.48◦C (Indian Ocean) and 0.87◦C (North Pacific) (two standard deviations). The tropical Pacific uncertainty is the largest due to different phasings of the ENSO signal. Over land areas, the regional temperature uncertainty varies from 1.03◦C (South America) to 10.82◦C (Europe) (two standard deviations). Similarly, the regional average uncertainty in precipitation varies from 0.001 cm/day over Antarctica to 0.163 cm/day over Australia with the global average of 0.075 cm/day. In general, both temperature and precipitation uncertainties are larger over land than over the ocean. A maximum covariance analysis is used to examine how ocean temperatures affect both surface air temperatures and precipitation over land. The analysis shows that the tropical Pacific influences the temperature over North America, but the North America surface temperature is also moderated by the state of the North Pacific outside the tropics. It also indicates which regions show a high degree of variance between the simulations in the ensemble and are, therefore, less predictable. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to an estimate of internal variability within CESM. Finally, the importance of feedback processes on the solution of the simulation over the ten years of the experiment is quantified. These estimates of uncertainty are without the consideration of anthropogenic effect on warming of the atmosphere and ocean.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation: NSFen_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 5, pp. 17-35en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/ascmo-5-17-2019
dc.identifier.grantnumber0851065en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/36338
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherCopernicus Publicationsen_GB
dc.rights© Author(s) 2019. Open access. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.en_GB
dc.titleInfluence of initial ocean conditions on temperature and precipitation in a coupled climate model’s solutionen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2019-03-07T11:34:09Z
dc.identifier.issn2364-3579
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this recorden_GB
dc.descriptionCode and data availability: Model output and software code are available through a request to the authors.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalAdvances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanographyen_GB
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-03-05
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-03-05
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2019-03-06T17:53:07Z
refterms.versionFCDAM
refterms.dateFOA2019-03-21T15:07:49Z
refterms.panelBen_GB


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© Author(s) 2019. Open access. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © Author(s) 2019. Open access. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.