dc.contributor.author | Alkhayuon, H | |
dc.contributor.author | Ashwin, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Jackson, LC | |
dc.contributor.author | Quinn, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Wood, RA | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-04-12T14:31:32Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019-05-15 | |
dc.description.abstract | The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC `on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood {et al} with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the `on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO2 atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Commission | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 475 (2225). Published online 15 May 2019. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rspa.2019.0051 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 643073 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/M008495/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/36797 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Royal Society, The | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2019 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. | |
dc.subject | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation | en_GB |
dc.subject | rate-induced tipping point | en_GB |
dc.subject | ocean heat transport | en_GB |
dc.title | Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for AMOC in a global oceanic box model | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2019-04-12T14:31:32Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1471-2946 | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from The Royal Society via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2019-04-11 | |
exeter.funder | ::European Commission | en_GB |
exeter.funder | ::Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
rioxxterms.version | AM | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2019-04-11 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2019-04-11T18:15:05Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2019-05-28T10:27:49Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |