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dc.contributor.authorAlkhayuon, H
dc.contributor.authorAshwin, P
dc.contributor.authorJackson, LC
dc.contributor.authorQuinn, C
dc.contributor.authorWood, RA
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-12T14:31:32Z
dc.date.issued2019-05-15
dc.description.abstractThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC `on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood {et al} with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the `on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO2 atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Commissionen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)en_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 475 (2225). Published online 15 May 2019.en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspa.2019.0051
dc.identifier.grantnumber643073en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberEP/M008495/1en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/36797
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherRoyal Society, Theen_GB
dc.rights© 2019 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
dc.subjectAtlantic meridional overturning circulationen_GB
dc.subjectrate-induced tipping pointen_GB
dc.subjectocean heat transporten_GB
dc.titleBasin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for AMOC in a global oceanic box modelen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2019-04-12T14:31:32Z
dc.identifier.issn1471-2946
dc.descriptionThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from The Royal Society via the DOI in this record.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalProceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciencesen_GB
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-04-11
exeter.funder::European Commissionen_GB
exeter.funder::Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)en_GB
rioxxterms.versionAMen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-04-11
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2019-04-11T18:15:05Z
refterms.versionFCDAM
refterms.dateFOA2019-05-28T10:27:49Z
refterms.panelBen_GB


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