Extended deterrence dilemmas in the grey zone: transatlantic insights on Baltic security challenges

Abstract

Should the U.S. respond with military means to a limited Russian incursion in the Baltics? This paper explores Western public and expert attitudes towards such a hypothetical grey zone crisis. Using survey experiments and crisis simulations we find considerable reluctance to use military tools and channels in order to support a Baltic ally, and surprisingly little variation across the audiences. We also find that the understanding of Baltic regional realities in the U.S. and Western Europe, although gradually increasing, remains limited. The underlying reluctance to get the U.S. involved in an armed conflict with Russia in the hopes that such acquiescence may help preserve global stability indicates that the conflict in Ukraine only had a fundamentally limited impact on Western strategic thought vis-à-vis deterring Russia. The study points to young Democrats as the most likely prospective supporters of armed defense of the Baltic region (as opposed to Republicans traditionally approached by Baltic lobbyists), suggesting a due shift in Transatlantic engagement.